Park City Statistics: 2nd Q 2016

Whoa, mama, are you ready for a big post? I promised to stop when it stopped being interesting but all these numbers are interesting. Here is the official report:

2016 Q2 – PCR Rolling 12 – Short-2

What I’m poring over here is the 12 month rolling, year over year, July 2015-June 2016 vs. July 2014-June 2015. I’ve used medians here because we can have sales at $1M and $7M in the same MLS area, but some of our sample sizes are so small that medians are skewed as well. The notes are in italics, and are either my insights or ones gleaned from my colleagues in the statistics committee.

And here are the PCMLS Trend Statistics Graphs (you know I love the graphs):

PCMLS-Trend-Statistics-----2016-05---Printed-May-2016-4

TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Our market continues to be highly complex and highly segmented. We are seeing some buyer resistance to prices in the Park City Proper (84060) areas, and an increase in number of sales in Snyderville Basin (84098), and a particular migration in single family home purchases to Summit Park, Pinebrook and Jordanelle. Outlying areas with properties under $500,000 are very active. Some segments of our market are back to highs of 2008 but the majority of areas have not reached pre-recession heights.

Properties priced at or below the median sell in a quarter of the time properties priced higher do.

Condos in Park City limits (84060) at or below the median price of $660,000 have an absorption rate of 4.6 months; over median price absorption rate moves o 15.4 months.

Single Family homes in the Park City limits at or below the median price of $1.58M have an absorption rate of 4 months; over the median price the absorption rate jumps to 17.4 months.

Condos in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $427,000 have an absorption rate of only 2 months; over median price the absorption rate becomes 8.7 months.

Single Family homes in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $955,000 have an absorption rate of 4.1 months; over median price the absorption rate jumps to 13.2 months.

Old Town
Houses:
Median sales price: up 8% to $1,332,500 (this year $1,332,500, last year $1,230,000)
Quantity sold: down 17% (this year 54 sales, last year 65)
Condos:
Median sales price: up 17%, from $445,000 to $519,000
Quantity sold: down 23% from 137 to 105
Average sales price this year for condos is $728,858, so there have been some high-ticket sales that are bringing that average up. Old Town is accounting for 33% of all unit sales in town. Twice as many condo sales as house sales.

Thaynes Canyon
Median sales price: up 58%, from $1,262,500 to $1,999,525
Quantity sold: up 20%, from 10 to 12
Picking up in Thaynes, 1 sale per month.

Lower Deer Valley
Houses:
Median sales price: up 13%, from $1,762,500 to $2,000,000
Quantity sold: up 17%, from 12 to 14

Condos:
Median sales price: up 14% from $735,000 to $835,000
Quantity sold: down 31%, from 71 to 49

Deer Crest
Houses:
Median sales price: down 17%, from $7,600,000 to $6,300,000
Quantity sold: no change, from 5 to 5
Unlike Upper Deer Valley and Empire Pass, new construction homes had no impact on Deer Crest the last two years. This year’s sales included two homes built in 2007, three in 2015, average of 7,969 sq ft, 5 bd and 7 ba. Last year’s sales included two homes built in 1999, and one each from 2001, 2005 and 20016.
Condos:
Median sales price: up 49% from $2,250,000 to $3,350,000
Quantity sold: flat, from 9 to 9

Upper Deer Valley
Houses:
Median sales price: up 125%, from $3,316,250 to $7,455,031
Quantity sold: up 8%, from 12 to 13
In this period, 5 new construction Stein Eriksen Residences closed, and only one closed last year. If we back those closings out we find that the median sales price is stable on existing inventory, from $3,157,500 last year to $3,220,837 for a 2% increase. The quantity sold goes down 27%, from 11 to 8.
Condos:
Median sales price: down 2%, from $1,330,000 to $1,301,500
Quantity sold: down 4%, from 27 to 26

Empire Pass
Houses:
Median sales price: up 41%, from $5,857,500 to $8,265,000
Quantity sold: up 100%, from 2 to 4 sales
New construction has a big impact on stats, this year, 2 new construction Belles closed, last year one new construction Nakoma.
Condos:
Median sales price: down 18% from $3,090,000 to $2,530,125
Quantity sold: down 31%, from 32 to 22
Includes 4 Montage sales.

Aerie
Houses:
Median sales price: down 15% from $2,025,000 to $1,727,500
Quantity sold: up 33%, from 3 to 4
Interesting, last year’s ultra contemporary 1430 Wild Rose new construction sold for $660/sq ft, vs. average of the other sales last year at $253/sq ft.
Condos:
Median sales price: up 8% from $1,520,000 to $1,645,000
Quantity sold: flat, from 2 to 2
Average sales price here is $1,645,000, up 8% from $1,520,000. Tiny sample size.

Prospector
Homes:
Median sales price: up 7% from $700,000 to $747,500
Quantity sold: down 29% from 17 to 15
Condos:
Median sales price: up 8% from $131,500 to $142,500
Quantity sold: down 23%, from 60 to 46
Mortgages are difficult on most of these products, so these are largely going to be cash sales.

Park Meadows
Homes:
Median sales price: up 12%, from $1,375,000 to $1,544,500
Quantity sold: down 40% from 63 to 38
9 built from 1976-1980, 6 built from 1981-1990, 16 built from 1991-2000, 4 built from 2001-2010, and 3 built from 2010+. One action we notice in Park Meadows is the purchase of single family homes, built in 1970s and ’80s, for the lot; teardowns and rebuilds. This causes us some heartburn on the stats committee as it’s technically a lot sale, but because it was sold as a house, we can’t change its category.

Condos:
Median sales price: down 15%, from $700,750 to $599,000
Quantity sold: down 50%, from 52 to 26

Overall Park City Limits:
Homes: Median price of a single family home: $1,582,000, up 19% from last year’s $1,335,000.
Quantity sold is down 17%, from 189 to 156.
Condos: Median sales price is up 18%, from $560,500 to $660,000.
Quantity sold: down 27%, from 390 to 285
12 sales are over $7M which is skewing the averages, and 148 listings are active as of the meeting with 116 over $2M.

Canyons
Houses:
Median sales price: up 8%, from $5,475,000 to $5,895,000
Quantity sold: up 60%, from 10 to 16
Of the 16 houses that sold last year, only one was not in the Colony at White Pine Canyon, however that house was ski-in/ski out and closed at $3.2M, so it does not skew the stats as severely as it might if it were not a luxury home with ski access. Six homes this last year were sold with undisclosed sales prices, which we calculate at 95% of list price, and of those six, three were sold as part of luxury auctions which tend to be far less than list price.

Condos:
Median sales price: up 39% from $388,750 to $542,000
Quantity sold: up 22%, from 90 to 110

Sun Peak/Bear Hollow
Homes:
Median sales price: up 3%, from $852,730 to $876,450
Quantity sold: down 47%, from 30 to 16

Condos:
Median sales price: up 8%, from $399,900 to $430,250
Quantity sold: up 11%, from 45 to 50

Silver Springs Area
Homes:
Median sales price: up 7%, from $852,500 to $910,000
Quantity sold: down 17%, from 42 to 35
Low inventory in this neighborhood for sure.

Condos:
Median sales price: up 15%, from $466,092 to $538,000
Quantity sold: down 58%, from 12 to 5

Old Ranch Road
Median sales price: up 5% from $2,020,000 to $2,125,000
Quantity sold: flat, from 11 to 11

Kimball Junction
Homes:
Median sales price: up 5%, from $495,737 to $521,000
Quantity sold: down 33%, from 18 to 12

Condos:
Median sales price: up 52%, from $250,000 to $380,100
Quantity sold: up 73%, from 75 to 130
This is one condo closed every 3 days.

Pinebrook
Homes:
Median sales price: down 3% from $780,000 to $755,000
Quantity sold: up 25%, from 36 to 45

Condos:
Median sales price: up 18%, from $385,000 to $452,500
Quantity sold: down 2%, from 61 to 60

Summit Park
Homes:
Median sales price: up 27% from $485,000 to $615,000
Quantity sold: down 6% from 35 to 33
Summit Park is in the Park City School District, and up until recently was a splendid bargain due to the long-lasting snows, and heavily wooded and sometimes steep lots. This past year, however, we are seeing inventory sell quickly and often with multiple offers.

Condos:
Median sales price: up 13%, from $286,250 to $323,250
Quantity sold: flat, 2 to 2
There simply aren’t many condos in Summit Park.

Jeremy Ranch
Homes:
Median sales price: up 8% from $850,000 to $915,000
Quantity sold: up 4%, from 45 to 47

Condos:
Median sales price: up 12%, from $535,000 to $597,000
Quantity sold: down 37%, from 19 to 12

Glenwild/Silver Creek
Median sales price: up 39%, from $1,225,000 to $1,700,000
Quantity sold: down 23% from 35 to 27
Of the 27 sales, 21 were in Silver Creek (median price $1.03M) and 6 in Glenwild (median price $2.85M).

Trailside Park
Median sales price: up 16% from $617,000 to $715,900
Quantity sold: down 14% from 42 to 36

Promontory Area
Median sales price: up 19% from $1,558,567 to $1,849,195
Quantity sold: up 7% from 56 to 60
Highest number of sales in this period from Old Town to Snyderville Basin.

Overall Snyderville Basin:
Homes: Median price of a single family home: $938,500, up 10% from last year’s $938,500. 
Quantity sold is down 6%, from 360 last year to 338 this year.
Condos: Median price of a condo is up 12%, from $381,950 to $429,000, and quantity sold is up 21%, from 304 to 369.
Snyderville Basin now has a higher number of sales in single family and condominiums than Park City Limits.

Overall Jordanelle:
Homes: Median sales price: up 42%, from $838,132 to $1,190,000
Quantity sold: up 39%, from 28 to 39
Jordanelle is just far enough out to get you a lot more for the money, but is outside of the PC school districts. Parents in this neighborhood have the option of bussing their kids into the Wasatch County school district or sending them to private or charter school.
Condos: Median sales price: down 12% from $439,450 to $386,780
Quantity sold: up 4% from 130 to 135
This is another area where we are seeing one condo close every 3 days.

Midway/Charleston
Homes:
Median sales price: up 4% from $463,200 to $479,900
Quantity sold: up 46%, from 68 to 99
New construction, the lowest price is $465,000
Condos:
Median sales price: up 37% from $439,450 to $386,780
Quantity sold: up 67%, from 18 to 30

Heber/Daniels
Median sales price: up 9%, from $325,500 to $355,000
Quantity sold: up 39% from $126 to 175

Timberlakes
Median sales price: up 9%, from $285,250 to $311,050
Quantity sold: down 6% from 36 to 34

Total Heber Valley:
Median sales price is up to $399,900, up 16% from $345,000, and quantity sold is up 35% from 231 to 311.

Woodland and Francis
Median sales price: up 15% from $363,000 to $419,000
Quantity sold: up 49% from $35 to 18

Kamas and Marion
Median sales price: up 5%, from $275,500 to $290,350
Quantity sold: up 8% from 24 to 26
However, there were some big sales as the average sales price is up 8% from $364,050 to $394,183.

Oakley
Median sales price: up 10% from $281,500 to $310,000
Quantity sold: up 38%, from 32 to 44
Worth nothing the averages here too, average price is down 28% from $670,945 to $482,882.

Peoa and Brown’s Canyon
Median sales price: up 59% from $415,000 to $660,000
Quantity sold: flat, from 5 to 5
The averages here are surprisingly close to the medians, from $393,040 to $720,800, an increase of 83%.

Total Kamas Valley:
Median sales price is up 2%, from $320,000 to $325,000
Quantity sold: down 3%, from 96 to 93
There is a lack of inventory in lower price points; most properties below $300,000 that have year-round access sell in only a few days.

And! I have certainly tried to avoid any typos. However if there are any typos please know they are erroneous.

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