Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: 3Q 2015 Park City Stats Committee

I am a member of the Park City Board of Realtors Statistics Committee, and every quarter we gather to look at how the sales numbers actually shake out, and we compare it to our personal anecdotes about what has been happening in our individual businesses. And every quarter we collectively walk away with wide eyes, open minds, and particular areas we plan to watch for the next quarter. It’s a reality check, the whole picture. As we all know, by picking and choosing particular stats, advertising and news media can paint any economic picture. As Benjamin Disraeli said (and Mark Twain made famous): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Yesterday’s stats meeting was another brain melter. Two years I’ve been attending and I haven’t left a meeting yet feeling like there were no surprises left. Get ready: there is a lot of meat to chew through here. So, I have a TL;DR Version and a Full Edition. LET’S DO THIS THING.

TL;DR

Lower Deer Valley condos are finally selling. Prospector and Kimball Junction condos are selling like crazy. Jordanelle is going gangbusters on condos, houses and vacant land. If you’re building a home, you’re probably buying land in Heber or Jordanelle. The PCMR/Canyons connection is potentially making Deer Valley more exclusive. Median sales price for single family homes in the Park City limits is $1.439M, up 18% over last year; Snyderville Basin $874,500, up 20%; Heber Valley $354,900, up 3%; Kamas Valley $475,000, up 35%. Greater Park City, median home prices are steadily increasing, but are in the same range as 2006, 2009 and 2010.

FULL EDITION

Number of Units Sold overall in 2014 (2,332) is in the same range as 2003 (2,302) and 2008 (2,452).
3Q2015-NumberofUnitsSold
Total Dollar Volume Sold overall in 2014 ($1,667,108,371) is greater than each year since 2007, has been increasing steadily since 2009, but is still less than our peak in 2005 ($2,128,923,506).
3Q2015-Total Dollar Volume of Sold Units
Median Price of Sold Units overall in 2014 ($425,900) is at the highest level since 2009 ($411,000) but still lower than our peak in 2007 ($540,000).
3Q2015-Median Price of Sold Units
And from the Rick Klein Report (Rick is a local lender with Wells Fargo who prepares a report for the committee, is a crack lender and a terrific comedic writer. Click here for the full PDF report.)
Pending Sales in Greater Park City for the first 9 months of 2015 are at the highest pended sales rate since 2006 and has been on a steady increase since 2009.
3Q2015-Rick Klein Pended Sales
Closed sales in Greater Park City for the first 9 months of 2015 are at the highest rate since 2007, also on an increase since 2009.
3Q2015-Rick Klein Closed Sales
Our Absorption Rate for condos and single family homes (on a 3 month rolling average), is 6.1 months. Since 2010, the average has been 11.2 months. (Absorption rate is based on the number of units sold per month divided by the number of units available for sale.)
3Q2015-Rick Klein Absorption Rate
And as a whole in Greater Park City, median home prices are steadily increasing, but are in the same range as 2006, 2009 and 2010.
3Q2015-Rick Klein 12 Mo Median Prices

If you’ve come this far perhaps you’d be willing to come a little further. Neighborhood-specific stats:

As we’re coming into the ski season it’s critical to watch activity near the ski resorts. I have a hunch (validated by my colleagues yesterday) that the joining of Park City Mountain Resort and Canyons Resort will make Deer Valley properties more exclusive. Over the past year, condo sales in Lower and Upper Deer Valley have been sluggish however, with more interest focusing on Canyons and Kimball Junction (the intersection of I-80 and Hwy 224). (Click here for the full PDF report.)

Lower Deer Valley condos (12-month rolling, year over year, 10/2013-9/2014 to 10/2014-9/2015):
Quantity sold up 82%: 39 sold to 71 sold
Median price up 8%: $680,000 to $735,000

82% I MEAN COME ON FINALLY.

Upper Deer Valley condos:
Quantity sold up 23%: 22 sold to 27 sold
Median price up slightly 3%: $1,297,500 to $1,330,000
Empire Pass condos:
Quantity sold down 10%: 27 sold to 37 sold
Median price up 10%: $2,800,000 to $3,080,000
New projects coming in Empire Pass, there may be some slowing in resale purchases until people see what the new products will be.
Old Town condos:
Quantity sold down 10%: 152 sold to 137 sold
Median price up 21%: $372,500 to $450,000
Five of the 10 units at the new 820 Park Ave project are between $1.3M and 2.4M and may be closing this coming quarter. The penthouse at the Parkite project closed at the beginning of May at $3.5M, and the other 14 units are between $1.5M and $5.5M but not yet pended. The average sold price will be affected already, but we will see how the 4th quarter shakes out for median pricing.
Canyons condos:
Quantity sold up 16%: 75 sold to 87 sold
Median price up 12%: $351,000 to $392,700
New product coming on line here as well, Blackstone and Juniper Landing, both over $1M.
Kimball Junction condos:
Quantity sold up 77%: 69 sold to 122 sold
Median price up 58%: $227,500 to $359,000
What I am seeing in general is that it is less critical for buyers to have easy ski access. They are more willing to drive to skiing than I think they have ever been, and summer and year-round activity access is more important than ever. People are buying for a year-round lifestyle destination, not necessarily for a winter-only ski destination.
All the stats are of note, but as I had 2 listings in Prospector this summer that sold in a matter of weeks, I was particularly interested to see what the numbers say there.
Prospector condos:
Quantity sold up 146%: 28 sold to 69 sold
Median sales price up 4%: $128,450 to $134,000
This is a huge increase in quantity sold with a very small increase in price. The buyers of my listings were local to Park City or Salt Lake City, both bought with cash, both planned to use for some nightly rentals and some weekend use. This suggests a very interesting shift in attitudes.
One other area of note is Jordanelle. Outside of the Park City School District, in between Heber City and Park City and on the Jordanelle Reservoir. This area has exploded in recent years with both condos and single family homes, and is rapidly becoming a great alternative to living in town for commuters to Park City or Salt Lake City.
Jordanelle condos:
Quantity sold up 7%: 120 sold to 128 sold
Median sales price up 9%: $389,513 to $423,425
Now on face this isn’t terribly exciting, just lovely steady growth. Oh but also 128 condos sold in 9 months equals 14 condos sold per month. ONE CONDO SOLD EVERY OTHER DAY THIS IS A BIG DEAL.
Now, onto houses.
Park Meadows houses:
Quantity sold up 20%: 49 sold to 59 sold
Median sales price up 18%: $1,220,000 to $1,439,000
Old Town houses:
Quantity sold up 18%: 51 sold to 60 sold
Median sales price up 10%: $1,165,000 to $1,277,250
Deer Crest houses:
Quantity sold up 75%: 4 sold to 7 sold
Median sales price 13%: $5,600,000 to $6,300,000
Canyons houses:
Quantity sold up 9%: 11 sold to 12 sold
Median sales price up 8%: $4,800,000 to $5,172,000
It’s been my hunch that PCMR/Canyons combination would make Deer Valley properties more exclusive and the merger would make for a more clear division between enthusiasts for either resort. What I’m seeing here in Deer Valley and Canyons (which includes the Colony) numbers is fascinating and backs my claim. I would’ve expected much greater interest in Canyons luxury properties if all the hype is true. What I’m seeing is that even though prices are slightly less at Canyons buyers are opting for a purchase in Deer Crest which is the ski-in/ski-out community and Deer Valley. Though going from 4 to 7 is a small sample size it’s still a significant jump.
Three areas of high single-family home growth are in The Snyderville Basin:
Pinebrook houses:
Quantity sold up 38%: 34 sold to 47 sold
Median sales price up 9%: $708,500 to $770,000
Glenwild/Silver Creek houses:
Quantity sold up 50%: 24 sold to 36 sold
Median sales price up 19%: $1,012,500 to $1,200,250
Promontory houses:
Quantity sold up 27%: 44 sold to 56 sold
Median sales price down 1%: $1,648,000 to $1,633,500
At Jordanelle again, very exciting growth in single family homes.
Jordanelle houses:
Quantity sold up 113%: 15 sold to 32 sold
Median sales price up 6%: $825,000 to $877,500
I will be shocked if prices do not increase in the 4th quarter at Jordanelle. This is a lot of new product coming on line and closing, and to double the quantity sold year over year is just begging for a price increase.
The other areas that are important to watch are communities in Wasatch County. These counties are critical competitors for Park City property, and offer more for the money and a different commuting route for those headed to Salt Lake City.
Heber and Daniels houses:
Quantity sold up 19%: 105 sold to 125 sold
Median sales price 10%: $305,000 to $335,5000
Another interesting report is what’s coming out of Timberlakes. Timberlakes is formerly a summer cabin community outside of Heber City, above Red Ledges Golf Course. Originally with only dirt roads, the community has attracted enough single-family residents that the infrastructure is building up around them. Now there is a manned guard house and a gate, as well as paved roads and regular snowplowing.
Timberlakes houses:
Quantity up 65%: 23 sold to 38 sold
Median sales price up 32%: $226,000 to $299,250
What I find most interesting about this is that, while there were quite a few lots sold in Timberlakes, they pale in comparison to those sold in Heber. This may indicate that the buyer in Timberlakes is looking for something more affordable and already built; easier to get a loan on than buying a lot and qualifying for a construction loan. Time will tell.
Timberlakes vacant land:
Quantity sold up 58%: 12 sold to 19 sold
Median sales price down 8%: $24,000 to $22,000
Heber and Daniels vacant land:
Quantity sold up 1%: 112 sold to 113 sold (THREE A WEEK)
Median sales price up 21%: $190,000 to $230,000
Jordanelle vacant land:
Quantity sold up 64%: 33 sold to 54 sold
Median sales price up 40%: $190,000 to $266,650
TA DAH. You made it! Except that there will be more to dig through and tons of great information in the three reports I posted above, and when the Board releases their press release we’ll have even more to think about. But other than that, we’ve arrived. Let me know if you have any questions about specific neighborhoods, etc. and we’ll pore over the details.

One Comment Add yours

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s