Park City Statistics: 1st Quarter 2017

Just came out of our Year over Year Period Comparison Report — 12 Month Rolling and as usual, more information than I can digest at one time. Here are some initial observations from the committee:

Watch out when looking at Upper Deer Valley’s condo sales, price appears to be up over 130% but that is because Stein Eriksen Residences began to close.

Trends suggest that the number of sales in the first quarter is always low; the number of sales this quarter is up 22% in number of sales over last year, so we might expect the next three quarters to increase as well.

Anything in the Kamas valley that is reasonably priced is under contract in under 2 weeks. There is also a huge rental demand.

What was perceived as far away is no longer perceived as such. Red Ledges is a terrific value. The competition for Empire Pass is Promontory. Buyers are younger (heyooooooo) and looking for gated communities with lots of amenities.

Single family home sales in Old Town is very stable, but just because some condos are listed at $1,100/sq ft (and not selling) doesn’t mean every Old Town house is–or even many of them are–worth $1,100/sq ft.

Lower Deer Valley condos were hot, now it’s houses and a continuation of what we saw last quarter. People see the value and there is some flipping happening.

One of our local lenders, Rick Klein, compiles an excellent report that includes this fabulous graph (which does have some formatting issues).
Stats-Committee-Q1-17-9

If you list a condo in area 1-9 (Old Town to Park Meadows), for under the median sales price of $705,000, the stats show the absorption rate at 3.4 months. If you list for over that median, the stats show the absorption rate shooting up to 14.3 months. For single family homes in areas 1-9, if you list under the median price of $1,850,000 the stats show your absorption rate at 4 months. Whereas over that median price the stats show the absorption rate changes to 16.7 months.

For areas from 10-23 (Canyons out to Jordanelle), for condos up to the median price of $484,615 the stats show 1.5 months, and over the median price the stats show an absorption rate of 5.7 months. For single family homes up to the median price of $982,000 the stats show an absorption rate of 1.9 months, and over that median, the stats show an absorption rate of 10.1 months. (Absorption rate is calculated by taking the number of properties sold per month and dividing that out by the number of properties on the market.)

 

2016 Year-End Statistics

The year-end reports are out for the Park City Board of Realtors. For those who like to settle down in front of the fire with a glass of sherry and a massive binder full of charts, this link is for you: 12 Month Rolling Average January 2015 – December 2016 / January 2014 – December 2015

For those of a more visual persuasion, here is the  Park City MLS Trend Statistics Charts.

And for those of you that like your facts drilled down a little bit, here is the official press release from my last Statistics Committee Meeting at the  Park City Board of Realtors:

Park City, Utah – February 1st, 2017

2016 year-end housing statistics for Summit and Wasatch Counties, as reported by the Park City Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, show that over the past four years, the number of closed, pended, and active listings has continued to trend at a healthy and stable rate, with an averaged median price increase of 7.5% annually. However, in 2016, the median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and vacant land increased at a rate double that number. Overall, the quantity of sold properties did not increase sharply over previous years, yet the dollar volume for our entire market area was up 18%.

President of the Park City Board of REALTORS®, Sara Werbelow adds, “We have experienced a sustainable growth trend for several years. Areas surrounding Park City Proper, such as the Heber Valley and Jordanelle, are proving to be a consistent and robust draw for both primary and secondary homeowners, as buyers are capitalizing on new construction and great value.”

Single-Family Home Sales

Activity within the City Limits (84060)

With limited inventory and high demand for single-family homes within the City Limits, the median price climbed to $1.69 M.

  • Lower Deer Valley doubled in the number of homes sold and saw a 15% increase in median price reaching just under $2.2 M.
  • Park Meadows, consistently in high-demand, experienced seven fewer sales than in 2015 but ended the year with a slight increase in the median price to $1.59 M.
  • The number of sales in Prospector was on par with last year, but median price rose 13% hitting $833,000.
  • Old Town, with seven fewer closed sales than in 2015, ended the year with a median price of $1.48 M – up 12%.

Activity within the Snyderville Basin (84098)

With 366 home sales in 2016 – a 7% increase over last year, the Snyderville Basin accounted for the highest dollar volume in our market area with a median price reaching $968,000.

  • With 46 closed sales – 12 more than the previous year, Trailside took a lion’s share of activity in the Basin and also increased 13% in median price to $723,000.
  • Jeremy Ranch averaged one sale per week, with a total of 52 closed sales – 11 more than in 2015, and held on to a median price of $922,000.
  • The number of sales in the Canyons area went from nine to 23, several of which were in the Colony, ending 2016 with a median price of $5.89 M.
  • Silver Springs had ten fewer sales than last year, showing some market resistance to rising home prices in that neighborhood. The median price also dipped slightly to $897,000.
  • Kimball Junction saw more activity than last year with 16 closed sales and a 12% median price increase to $553,000.
  • Promontory climbed 20% in median price, reaching $2 M, and kept pace with last year’s number of sales.

Activity within the Kamas Valley

Overall, single-family home prices in the Kamas Valley rose 22% in 2016, compared to the previous year, with a median price reaching $380,000.

  • The Oakley / Weber Canyon area accounted for half of the total number of sales in the Kamas Valley with 45 and ended the year with a $387,000 median price.
  • Woodland / Francis saw more activity than in previous years and held on to a median price of $428,000.

Activity within the Heber Valley

With 359 home sales – 111 more than in 2015 – the Heber Valley rivaled the Basin’s number of units sold seeing areas of hot activity, with a median price of $394,000.

  • Midway / Charleston had 29 more sales than last year – which is a 38% increase, with a median price was $480,000. Approximately 40% of the homes in Midway are second-homes.
  • The Heber City / Daniels area accounted for the bulk of the single family home sales in the Heber Valley with a total of 214 – that is 83 more than 2015. The median price of a home gently coasted to $359,000.

Park City Board of REALTORS®’, Statistics Committee Chair, Carol Agle explains, “Our market area has a bifurcated buyer pool. The market resistance for single family homes seems to be at the $1 million price point and consumers have started to erase any preconceived, artificial delineation of zip codes and addresses.”

Condominium Sales

With 318 condominiums sold in 2016, Snyderville Basin (84098) outpaced the Park City Limits (84060) by 15 units. Despite double-digit price increases in both zip codes, demand continued to be strong in both the City Limits and in the Basin with the median price of $685,000 in town and $468,000 out of town.

City Limits

  • Old Town had the highest number of closed sales by neighborhood within the City Limits, averaging two per week with 118 and saw a 26% jump in median price to $568,000.
  • Park Meadows had ten fewer sales than the previous year and crept along with a median price close to last year’s number at $565,000.
  • Lower Deer Valley, with 24 fewer sales than last year, was up slightly in price to $831,000.
  • Prospector, the most affordable neighborhood within the City Limits, had a median price of $139,000.

Snyderville Basin

  • With new product closing at Canyons, that area had an uptick in quantity sold, averaging ten sales per month, and saw a 53% jump in median price to $615,000.
  • Due to large projects closing at the end of 2015, the Kimball Junction area experienced a decrease in the number of units sold in 2016 but finished the year with a solid 79 closed sales, which is close to two sales per week.
  • The Pinebrook area had a solid year with 63 units sold and maintained a steady median price of $437,000.
  • The appeal of new product in the Jordanelle area kept buyers’ interested, as can be seen by a 28% increase in the number of sales and median price of $479,000.

Looking Ahead

The number of active properties has remained surprisingly consistent over the last several years, with 1,840 currently listed on the Park City MLS. Prices in our market area have continued to rise year-over-year as both primary and secondary homeowners desire to live, work, and play in Summit and Wasatch Counties. Finding affordable property in certain areas remains challenging with high demand, limited inventory, and rising home prices. Buyers continue to look for value and affordability in outlying communities. With the average home remaining on the market between 7 – 11 months, properties listed at or below their neighborhood median price sell almost 4 times as quickly.

Our market area is complex and constantly changing and evolving with micro-markets dividing product by property type, location, price, age, and amenities. Buyers and sellers are advised to contact a local Park City REALTOR® for information on what is happening in your neighborhood.

Park City, Utah – February 1st, 2017

2016 year-end housing statistics for Summit and Wasatch Counties, as reported by the Park City Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, show that over the past four years, the number of closed, pended, and active listings has continued to trend at a healthy and stable rate, with an averaged median price increase of 7.5% annually. However, in 2016, the median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and vacant land increased at a rate double that number. Overall, the quantity of sold properties did not increase sharply over previous years, yet the dollar volume for our entire market area was up 18%.

President of the Park City Board of REALTORS®, Sara Werbelow adds, “We have experienced a sustainable growth trend for several years. Areas surrounding Park City Proper, such as the Heber Valley and Jordanelle, are proving to be a consistent and robust draw for both primary and secondary homeowners, as buyers are capitalizing on new construction and great value.”

Single-Family Home Sales

Activity within the City Limits (84060)

With limited inventory and high demand for single-family homes within the City Limits, the median price climbed to $1.69 M.

  • Lower Deer Valley doubled in the number of homes sold and saw a 15% increase in median price reaching just under $2.2 M.
  • Park Meadows, consistently in high-demand, experienced seven fewer sales than in 2015 but ended the year with a slight increase in the median price to $1.59 M.
  • The number of sales in Prospector was on par with last year, but median price rose 13% hitting $833,000.
  • Old Town, with seven fewer closed sales than in 2015, ended the year with a median price of $1.48 M – up 12%.

Activity within the Snyderville Basin (84098)

With 366 home sales in 2016 – a 7% increase over last year, the Snyderville Basin accounted for the highest dollar volume in our market area with a median price reaching $968,000.

  • With 46 closed sales – 12 more than the previous year, Trailside took a lion’s share of activity in the Basin and also increased 13% in median price to $723,000.
  • Jeremy Ranch averaged one sale per week, with a total of 52 closed sales – 11 more than in 2015, and held on to a median price of $922,000.
  • The number of sales in the Canyons area went from nine to 23, several of which were in the Colony, ending 2016 with a median price of $5.89 M.
  • Silver Springs had ten fewer sales than last year, showing some market resistance to rising home prices in that neighborhood. The median price also dipped slightly to $897,000.
  • Kimball Junction saw more activity than last year with 16 closed sales and a 12% median price increase to $553,000.
  • Promontory climbed 20% in median price, reaching $2 M, and kept pace with last year’s number of sales.

Activity within the Kamas Valley

Overall, single-family home prices in the Kamas Valley rose 22% in 2016, compared to the previous year, with a median price reaching $380,000.

  • The Oakley / Weber Canyon area accounted for half of the total number of sales in the Kamas Valley with 45 and ended the year with a $387,000 median price.
  • Woodland / Francis saw more activity than in previous years and held on to a median price of $428,000.

Activity within the Heber Valley

With 359 home sales – 111 more than in 2015 – the Heber Valley rivaled the Basin’s number of units sold seeing areas of hot activity, with a median price of $394,000.

  • Midway / Charleston had 29 more sales than last year – which is a 38% increase, with a median price was $480,000. Approximately 40% of the homes in Midway are second-homes.
  • The Heber City / Daniels area accounted for the bulk of the single family home sales in the Heber Valley with a total of 214 – that is 83 more than 2015. The median price of a home gently coasted to $359,000.

Park City Board of REALTORS®’, Statistics Committee Chair, Carol Agle explains, “Our market area has a bifurcated buyer pool. The market resistance for single family homes seems to be at the $1 million price point and consumers have started to erase any preconceived, artificial delineation of zip codes and addresses.”

Condominium Sales

With 318 condominiums sold in 2016, Snyderville Basin (84098) outpaced the Park City Limits (84060) by 15 units. Despite double-digit price increases in both zip codes, demand continued to be strong in both the City Limits and in the Basin with the median price of $685,000 in town and $468,000 out of town.

City Limits

  • Old Town had the highest number of closed sales by neighborhood within the City Limits, averaging two per week with 118 and saw a 26% jump in median price to $568,000.
  • Park Meadows had ten fewer sales than the previous year and crept along with a median price close to last year’s number at $565,000.
  • Lower Deer Valley, with 24 fewer sales than last year, was up slightly in price to $831,000.
  • Prospector, the most affordable neighborhood within the City Limits, had a median price of $139,000.

Snyderville Basin

  • With new product closing at Canyons, that area had an uptick in quantity sold, averaging ten sales per month, and saw a 53% jump in median price to $615,000.
  • Due to large projects closing at the end of 2015, the Kimball Junction area experienced a decrease in the number of units sold in 2016 but finished the year with a solid 79 closed sales, which is close to two sales per week.
  • The Pinebrook area had a solid year with 63 units sold and maintained a steady median price of $437,000.
  • The appeal of new product in the Jordanelle area kept buyers’ interested, as can be seen by a 28% increase in the number of sales and median price of $479,000.

Looking Ahead

The number of active properties has remained surprisingly consistent over the last several years, with 1,840 currently listed on the Park City MLS. Prices in our market area have continued to rise year-over-year as both primary and secondary homeowners desire to live, work, and play in Summit and Wasatch Counties. Finding affordable property in certain areas remains challenging with high demand, limited inventory, and rising home prices. Buyers continue to look for value and affordability in outlying communities. With the average home remaining on the market between 7 – 11 months, properties listed at or below their neighborhood median price sell almost 4 times as quickly.

Our market area is complex and constantly changing and evolving with micro-markets dividing product by property type, location, price, age, and amenities. Buyers and sellers are advised to contact a local Park City REALTOR® for information on what is happening in your neighborhood.

Park City, Utah – February 1st, 2017

2016 year-end housing statistics for Summit and Wasatch Counties, as reported by the Park City Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, show that over the past four years, the number of closed, pended, and active listings has continued to trend at a healthy and stable rate, with an averaged median price increase of 7.5% annually. However, in 2016, the median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and vacant land increased at a rate double that number. Overall, the quantity of sold properties did not increase sharply over previous years, yet the dollar volume for our entire market area was up 18%.

[…]

Single-Family Home Sales

Activity within the City Limits (84060)

With limited inventory and high demand for single-family homes within the City Limits, the median price climbed to $1.69 M.

  • Lower Deer Valley doubled in the number of homes sold and saw a 15% increase in median price reaching just under $2.2 M.
  • Park Meadows, consistently in high-demand, experienced seven fewer sales than in 2015 but ended the year with a slight increase in the median price to $1.59 M.
  • The number of sales in Prospector was on par with last year, but median price rose 13% hitting $833,000.
  • Old Town, with seven fewer closed sales than in 2015, ended the year with a median price of $1.48 M – up 12%.

Activity within the Snyderville Basin (84098)

With 366 home sales in 2016 – a 7% increase over last year, the Snyderville Basin accounted for the highest dollar volume in our market area with a median price reaching $968,000.

  • With 46 closed sales – 12 more than the previous year, Trailside took a lion’s share of activity in the Basin and also increased 13% in median price to $723,000.
  • Jeremy Ranch averaged one sale per week, with a total of 52 closed sales – 11 more than in 2015, and held on to a median price of $922,000.
  • The number of sales in the Canyons area went from nine to 23, several of which were in the Colony, ending 2016 with a median price of $5.89 M.
  • Silver Springs had ten fewer sales than last year, showing some market resistance to rising home prices in that neighborhood. The median price also dipped slightly to $897,000.
  • Kimball Junction saw more activity than last year with 16 closed sales and a 12% median price increase to $553,000.
  • Promontory climbed 20% in median price, reaching $2 M, and kept pace with last year’s number of sales.

Activity within the Kamas Valley

Overall, single-family home prices in the Kamas Valley rose 22% in 2016, compared to the previous year, with a median price reaching $380,000.

  • The Oakley / Weber Canyon area accounted for half of the total number of sales in the Kamas Valley with 45 and ended the year with a $387,000 median price.
  • Woodland / Francis saw more activity than in previous years and held on to a median price of $428,000.

Activity within the Heber Valley

With 359 home sales – 111 more than in 2015 – the Heber Valley rivaled the Basin’s number of units sold seeing areas of hot activity, with a median price of $394,000.

  • Midway / Charleston had 29 more sales than last year – which is a 38% increase, with a median price was $480,000. Approximately 40% of the homes in Midway are second-homes.
  • The Heber City / Daniels area accounted for the bulk of the single family home sales in the Heber Valley with a total of 214 – that is 83 more than 2015. The median price of a home gently coasted to $359,000.

[…]

Condominium Sales

With 318 condominiums sold in 2016, Snyderville Basin (84098) outpaced the Park City Limits (84060) by 15 units. Despite double-digit price increases in both zip codes, demand continued to be strong in both the City Limits and in the Basin with the median price of $685,000 in town and $468,000 out of town.

City Limits

  • Old Town had the highest number of closed sales by neighborhood within the City Limits, averaging two per week with 118 and saw a 26% jump in median price to $568,000.
  • Park Meadows had ten fewer sales than the previous year and crept along with a median price close to last year’s number at $565,000.
  • Lower Deer Valley, with 24 fewer sales than last year, was up slightly in price to $831,000.
  • Prospector, the most affordable neighborhood within the City Limits, had a median price of $139,000.

Snyderville Basin

  • With new product closing at Canyons, that area had an uptick in quantity sold, averaging ten sales per month, and saw a 53% jump in median price to $615,000.
  • Due to large projects closing at the end of 2015, the Kimball Junction area experienced a decrease in the number of units sold in 2016 but finished the year with a solid 79 closed sales, which is close to two sales per week.
  • The Pinebrook area had a solid year with 63 units sold and maintained a steady median price of $437,000.
  • The appeal of new product in the Jordanelle area kept buyers’ interested, as can be seen by a 28% increase in the number of sales and median price of $479,000.

Looking Ahead

The number of active properties has remained surprisingly consistent over the last several years, with 1,840 currently listed on the Park City MLS. Prices in our market area have continued to rise year-over-year as both primary and secondary homeowners desire to live, work, and play in Summit and Wasatch Counties. Finding affordable property in certain areas remains challenging with high demand, limited inventory, and rising home prices. Buyers continue to look for value and affordability in outlying communities. With the average home remaining on the market between 7 – 11 months, properties listed at or below their neighborhood median price sell almost 4 times as quickly.

Park City Statistics: 2nd Q 2016

Whoa, mama, are you ready for a big post? I promised to stop when it stopped being interesting but all these numbers are interesting. Here is the official report:

2016 Q2 – PCR Rolling 12 – Short-2

What I’m poring over here is the 12 month rolling, year over year, July 2015-June 2016 vs. July 2014-June 2015. I’ve used medians here because we can have sales at $1M and $7M in the same MLS area, but some of our sample sizes are so small that medians are skewed as well. The notes are in italics, and are either my insights or ones gleaned from my colleagues in the statistics committee.

And here are the PCMLS Trend Statistics Graphs (you know I love the graphs):

PCMLS-Trend-Statistics-----2016-05---Printed-May-2016-4

TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Our market continues to be highly complex and highly segmented. We are seeing some buyer resistance to prices in the Park City Proper (84060) areas, and an increase in number of sales in Snyderville Basin (84098), and a particular migration in single family home purchases to Summit Park, Pinebrook and Jordanelle. Outlying areas with properties under $500,000 are very active. Some segments of our market are back to highs of 2008 but the majority of areas have not reached pre-recession heights.

Properties priced at or below the median sell in a quarter of the time properties priced higher do.

Condos in Park City limits (84060) at or below the median price of $660,000 have an absorption rate of 4.6 months; over median price absorption rate moves o 15.4 months.

Single Family homes in the Park City limits at or below the median price of $1.58M have an absorption rate of 4 months; over the median price the absorption rate jumps to 17.4 months.

Condos in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $427,000 have an absorption rate of only 2 months; over median price the absorption rate becomes 8.7 months.

Single Family homes in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $955,000 have an absorption rate of 4.1 months; over median price the absorption rate jumps to 13.2 months.

Continue reading “Park City Statistics: 2nd Q 2016”

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: 3Q 2015 Park City Stats Committee

I am a member of the Park City Board of Realtors Statistics Committee, and every quarter we gather to look at how the sales numbers actually shake out, and we compare it to our personal anecdotes about what has been happening in our individual businesses. And every quarter we collectively walk away with wide eyes, open minds, and particular areas we plan to watch for the next quarter. It’s a reality check, the whole picture. As we all know, by picking and choosing particular stats, advertising and news media can paint any economic picture. As Benjamin Disraeli said (and Mark Twain made famous): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Yesterday’s stats meeting was another brain melter. Two years I’ve been attending and I haven’t left a meeting yet feeling like there were no surprises left. Get ready: there is a lot of meat to chew through here. So, I have a TL;DR Version and a Full Edition. LET’S DO THIS THING.

TL;DR

Lower Deer Valley condos are finally selling. Prospector and Kimball Junction condos are selling like crazy. Jordanelle is going gangbusters on condos, houses and vacant land. If you’re building a home, you’re probably buying land in Heber or Jordanelle. The PCMR/Canyons connection is potentially making Deer Valley more exclusive. Median sales price for single family homes in the Park City limits is $1.439M, up 18% over last year; Snyderville Basin $874,500, up 20%; Heber Valley $354,900, up 3%; Kamas Valley $475,000, up 35%. Greater Park City, median home prices are steadily increasing, but are in the same range as 2006, 2009 and 2010.

Continue reading “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: 3Q 2015 Park City Stats Committee”