Tag: Statistics

Whoa, mama, are you ready for a big post? I promised to stop when it stopped being interesting but all these numbers are interesting. Here is the official report:

2016 Q2 – PCR Rolling 12 – Short-2

What I’m poring over here is the 12 month rolling, year over year, July 2015-June 2016 vs. July 2014-June 2015. I’ve used medians here because we can have sales at $1M and $7M in the same MLS area, but some of our sample sizes are so small that medians are skewed as well. The notes are in italics, and are either my insights or ones gleaned from my colleagues in the statistics committee.

And here are the PCMLS Trend Statistics Graphs (you know I love the graphs):

TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Our market continues to be highly complex and highly segmented. We are seeing some buyer resistance to prices in the Park City Proper (84060) areas, and an increase in number of sales in Snyderville Basin (84098), and a particular migration in single family home purchases to Summit Park, Pinebrook and Jordanelle. Outlying areas with properties under $500,000 are very active. Some segments of our market are back to highs of 2008 but the majority of areas have not reached pre-recession heights.

Properties priced at or below the median sell in a quarter of the time properties priced higher do.

Condos in Park City limits (84060) at or below the median price of $660,000 have an absorption rate of 4.6 months; over median price absorption rate moves o 15.4 months.

Single Family homes in the Park City limits at or below the median price of $1.58M have an absorption rate of 4 months; over the median price the absorption rate jumps to 17.4 months.

Condos in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $427,000 have an absorption rate of only 2 months; over median price the absorption rate becomes 8.7 months.

Single Family homes in Snyderville Basin priced at or below the median price of $955,000 have an absorption rate of 4.1 months; over median price the absorption rate jumps to 13.2 months.

Continue reading “Park City Statistics: 2nd Q 2016”

I am a member of the Park City Board of Realtors Statistics Committee, and every quarter we gather to look at how the sales numbers actually shake out, and we compare it to our personal anecdotes about what has been happening in our individual businesses. And every quarter we collectively walk away with wide eyes, open minds, and particular areas we plan to watch for the next quarter. It’s a reality check, the whole picture. As we all know, by picking and choosing particular stats, advertising and news media can paint any economic picture. As Benjamin Disraeli said (and Mark Twain made famous): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Yesterday’s stats meeting was another brain melter. Two years I’ve been attending and I haven’t left a meeting yet feeling like there were no surprises left. Get ready: there is a lot of meat to chew through here. So, I have a TL;DR Version and a Full Edition. LET’S DO THIS THING.

TL;DR

Lower Deer Valley condos are finally selling. Prospector and Kimball Junction condos are selling like crazy. Jordanelle is going gangbusters on condos, houses and vacant land. If you’re building a home, you’re probably buying land in Heber or Jordanelle. The PCMR/Canyons connection is potentially making Deer Valley more exclusive. Median sales price for single family homes in the Park City limits is $1.439M, up 18% over last year; Snyderville Basin $874,500, up 20%; Heber Valley $354,900, up 3%; Kamas Valley $475,000, up 35%. Greater Park City, median home prices are steadily increasing, but are in the same range as 2006, 2009 and 2010.

Continue reading “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: 3Q 2015 Park City Stats Committee”